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ESDMD #0307: Radiation Monitoring and Forecasting

Monitors, dosimeters, models and observations to forecast solar particle events (SPEs) with hours of warning and few false alarms, and to predict galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity (bin 3, rating 17 of 57). Today SPEs can be detected but "cannot reliably" be forecast, and models "struggle to predict the most intense and hazardous events". The target ties warning time to EVA planning (Tech gaps spreadsheet, ESDMD #0307).

Quotations below are from row ESDMD #0307 of the tech gaps spreadsheet. ADD Rev C's Appendix D prints the same table for this gap, and it matches the row field for field (ADD Rev C, p. 216).

Description

"Moon and Mars missions will encounter space radiation from multiple sources. Radiation must be monitored to determine exposure of hardware (sensitive electronics, materials) and assess health impacts to crew. Current state-of-the-art radiation monitoring can detect incoming solar particle events (SPEs) but cannot reliably forecast them. Current models provide unreliable prediction of event onset and poor predictions of duration, intensity, energy spectrum, and the intensity-time profile of the entire event. Monitors and dosimeters, new models, predictive algorithms, and new measurements/observations are needed to provide early warning of SPEs hazardous to astronauts and mission operations with low false alarms. Forecasting models for predicting GCR intensity from one solar cycle to the next are also needed."

Impacts and benefits: "Gap closure enables increased warning times and accuracy of real-time operational forecasting that can inform mission and crew operations of radiation hazards following development of an SPE event, as well as the prediction of all-clear periods."

Current state of the art

"Current space weather forecasting consists of monitoring the state of the Sun and altering the mission activities to account for any radiation events once detected. Existing charged particle detectors accurately measure the charged particle environment inside spacecraft, but long life, radiation hard detectors with an increased sensitivity to electrons are needed for SPE warning systems external to the spacecraft. Existing neutron monitors can measure the neutron spectrum up to ~15 MeV, but higher energy neutron measurements are limited by large uncertainties and measurement systems with excessive mass/volume/power. Current models do not accurately forecast the duration, intensity or how the event will change over time and struggle to predict the most intense and hazardous events."

Performance target

  • Moon/Mars: "Accurately characterize, forecast the onset of, and predict the duration, intensity, energy spectrum, and intensity-time profile of SPE events with low false alarm rates and hours of early warning for EVA planning. Monitor and forecast the GCR environment. Prediction should warn for electrons as well as protons."
  • Mars: "In addition, increased reliability compared to the lunar performance target."

Child gaps

  • 0307-01: Forecasting and radiation models for solar particle events
  • 0307-02: Space radiation detectors for long-duration missions
  • 0307-03: Earth-independent space weather forecasting

Traceability

  • Use cases and functions: UC-U-719 L; UC-U-720 L; UC-U-721 L; UC-U-722 L; UC-H-102 M -- FN-H-106 M; UC-H-103 M -- FN-H-110 M
  • Definition tasks: Mars: Maximum Total Crew Mission Duration

Segments and sub-architectures

Priority

Priority bin 3, overall prioritization rating 17 of 57. The rating is "the gap's location in the prioritized list of gaps", so 1 is the highest priority, and bins group gaps of similar priority, bin 1 highest. Criticality, urgency, breadth and depth set the order; cost is not considered (ADD Rev C, pp. 78, 199; method on the gaps index).

Moon Base relevance

Not established by the sources so far. The Users Guide does not name #0307 among its near-term Moon Base challenges (Technology and knowledge challenges). Its long-duration knowledge challenge mentions "radiation/charged particle fluctuations" (Users Guide, p. 12), but it ties that to data gaps, not to this gap.

Sources

Tech gaps spreadsheet, ESDMD #0307 · ADD Rev C, pp. 78, 199, 216 · Users Guide, p. 12