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ESDMD #1004: Trustworthy Autonomy for Planning and Decision-making

Software and hardware that let crews plan, forecast and decide without the ground, and that can explain their decisions so people trust them (bin 4, rating 33 of 57). Today ISS crews rely on ground support for planning, and "autonomous decision-making with existing technology cannot be done in a way that is trusted to meet performance objectives" (Tech gaps spreadsheet, ESDMD #1004).

Quotations below are from row ESDMD #1004 of the tech gaps spreadsheet unless marked otherwise. ADD Rev C's Appendix D prints the same table for this gap, and it matches the row field for field (ADD Rev C, p. 250).

Description

"Moon and Mars missions would benefit from capabilities (hardware, software, firmware, “cloud,” etc.) to enable autonomous crew planning, forecasting, and decision-making with simple-to-use, low-cost, and replicable solutions at a level of accuracy that supports human exploration. Robust systems would be capable of combining multiple data sources and dynamic decision-making as information updates. Autonomous decision-making with existing technology cannot be done in a way that is trusted to meet performance objectives."

Impacts and benefits: "Without gap closure, planned and future missions may not be viable or may have reduced value due to lack of trust in autonomous systems."

Current state of the art

"ISS crew largely relies on ground support for planning and nominal decision-making. There are insufficient ontologies and languages to facilitate implementation of autonomous capabilities."

Performance target

  • Moon/Mars: "Software platforms to enable analysis and decision-making without humans in the loop and can explain their decision-making (or have it inspected) to build trust."
  • Mars: "In addition, increased autonomy, reliability, and communication delays compared to the lunar performance target."

Child gaps

  • 1004-01: High-performance processors for deep space missions
  • 1004-02: Data fusion tools to merge complex and disparate data for real-time autonomous decision-making
  • 1004-03: Earth-independent decision support tools
  • 1004-04: Capability to integrate planning resources into commanding tasks

The title of 1004-01 also appears as 0202-01, 0805-02 and 1002-02, unstarred each time (open questions, item 14). The ADD prints all four unstarred too (ADD Rev C, pp. 209, 240, 248, 250, PDF checked), so by D.1's definition each is a child gap with one parent.

Traceability

  • Use cases and functions: UC-A-301 L -- FN-A-302 L; UC-A-403 M -- FN-A-401 M; UC-A-404 M -- FN-A-402 M
  • Definition tasks: Mars: MD-12 Maximum Allowable Crewed Communications Disruption; Priorities for Crew vs. Robotic Tasks Strategy
  • Cross-reference: FN-A-302 L, "Provide safeguards for automated asset(s) operating near crew", is also one of the Users Guide's Phase 1 functional gaps (Users Guide, p. 8; see Phase 1 functional gaps). This link joins the two sources; neither makes it. The same use case–function pair (UC-A-301 L -- FN-A-302 L) also appears under #1002 and #1005.

Segments and sub-architectures

Priority

Priority bin 4, overall prioritization rating 33 of 57. The rating is "the gap's location in the prioritized list of gaps", so 1 is the highest priority, and bins group gaps of similar priority, bin 1 highest. Criticality, urgency, breadth and depth set the order; cost is not considered (ADD Rev C, pp. 78, 199; method on the gaps index).

Moon Base relevance

Not established by the sources so far. The Users Guide does not name #1004 among its near-term Moon Base challenges (Technology and knowledge challenges). Two passages touch the same subject without citing this gap:

  • A Phase 1 habitation capability target: "Demonstrate Earth-independent operations" (Users Guide, p. 9; see Phase 1 functional gaps).
  • The Mars-forward area "Independent operations": "NASA can test many enabling capabilities and operational principles at the Moon Base, including autonomous systems, human/robotic interactions, and astronaut autonomy" (Users Guide, p. 14; see Mars-forward).

Sources

Tech gaps spreadsheet, ESDMD #1004 · ADD Rev C, pp. 78, 199, 209, 240, 248, 250 · Users Guide, pp. 8, 9, 14